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Blog

February 7th, 2019
Why growth in China is unlikely to slow too far and why it needs to save less and spend more

Key points

  • China’s economy is slowing but not collapsing as the services sector holds up. A further slowing is likely in the short term, but policy stimulus is likely to see growth improve in the second half, giving 2019 growth of 6.2%.
  • Concerns about China’s rapid debt growth are overstated given it reflects high (not low) savings.
  • Chinese shares are cheap but expect short term volatility.
  • Reasonable Chinese growth is a positive for the Australian economy. The housing downturn will dominate though, pushing the RBA to cut rates and this will see the $A fall further into the $US0.60s.

Read More

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