- The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency.
- While there is a possibility that the Democrats could win control of the Senate via runoff elections in Georgia, the most likely outcome is that Democrats will retain control of the House with Republicans retaining the Senate.
- This is likely to mean Biden’s proposed tax hikes won’t pass the Senate but that there will still be some extra fiscal stimulus and that trade wars will be toned down.
- This combination should be slightly more positive for Australian shares and the Australian dollar relative to US shares and the US dollar.
- Historically US shares have performed best under a Democrat President but a divided Congress.