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Oliver’s Insights

January 25th, 2022
Share market falls - seven things for investors to keep in mind

Key points Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Its too early to say markets have bottomed. Key … Continue reading

January 19th, 2022
Inflation Q&A – how worried should investors be about higher inflation?

Key points Inflation is placing increasing pressure on major central banks to remove monetary stimulus. Inflation & rising interest rates will likely contribute to more volatile & constrained investment returns this year. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates … Continue reading

January 12th, 2022
2022 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Key points 2021 saw strong investment returns with low volatility. 2022 is likely to see more constrained returns with increased volatility. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; inflation; the US mid-term elections; China issues; Russian tensions with Ukraine and the west; & … Continue reading

December 31st, 2021
Review of 2021, outlook for 2022 – recovery to continue as we hopefully learn to live with covid

Key points 2021 was again dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, along with concern about higher inflation and monetary tightening but shares, unlisted assets and balanced growth super funds saw strong returns. Continuing solid economic growth, rising profits and still easy … Continue reading

December 1st, 2021
Five reasons to expect a cooling in the Australian property market and falling prices in 2023

Key points After a 22% rise in Australian home prices this year, they are expected to slow to 5% growth in 2022 with prices likely to fall 5-10% in 2023. The main drivers behind the slowdown are: worsening affordability; rising … Continue reading

November 24th, 2021
The longer-term legacy of coronavirus – nine implications of importance to investors

Key points Likely key longer-term implications flowing from the coronavirus pandemic are: bigger government; increased money supply and excess saving; increased geopolitical tensions; reduced globalisation; a faster embrace of technology; a greater focus on lifestyle; and a potential post-pandemic boom. … Continue reading

November 10th, 2021
Compound interest is like magic – and it’s an investor’s best friend

Key points Compound interest is an investor’s best friend. The higher the return, the greater the investment contribution and the longer the period the more it works. To make the most of it, ensure an adequate exposure to growth assets, … Continue reading

November 3rd, 2021
Central banks – including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad

Key points The march of central banks towards removing monetary stimulus is continuing with the RBA bringing forward its guidance regarding the first rate hike and the Fed set to commence tapering. We expect both to start raising rates later … Continue reading

October 26th, 2021
Rising bond yields and the end of the super cycle bull market in bonds

Key points It’s normal for bond yields to rise in economic recoveries but it’s looking increasingly likely that the nearly 40-year super cycle decline in bond yields is over. This will remove a key tailwind for investment returns over the … Continue reading

October 20th, 2021
Science and medicine appear to be getting the upper hand of coronavirus – implications for investors

Key points There are increasing signs that science and medicine are getting the upper hand against coronavirus: new global cases are in decline; vaccines are working; half the global population and 73% of Australians have had at least one vaccine … Continue reading

October 13th, 2021
The worry list for shares – how worrying are they?

Key points It’s still too early to say that the pull back in share markets is over. Some of the worries around US fiscal policy and politics, China, global supply constraints and central banks likely have further to run and … Continue reading

September 29th, 2021
Why is Australian housing so expensive and what can be done to improve housing affordability?

Key points The key drivers of poor housing affordability and high household debt levels in Australia have been low rates and poor housing supply. Macro prudential controls to slow home lending now look imminent. But this is just a cyclical … Continue reading

September 22nd, 2021
Correction time? Shares get the wobblies – seven things investors need to keep in mind

Key points Share markets have hit the wobbles lately on the back of a long worry list ranging from growth concerns, central bank tapering, the US debt ceiling and fears of about China Evergrande’s problems. Shares may still have more … Continue reading

September 15th, 2021
Five reasons why the Australian dollar is likely to resume its upswing over the next 12 months

Key points Since its February high of around $US0.80 the $A the $A has fallen on the back of global growth concerns, a slowdown in China and the Delta outbreak in Australia. However, there is good reason to expect the … Continue reading

September 1st, 2021
Australian GDP slowed in the June quarter & will be hit hard by the lockdowns - but here’s 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom

Key points Australian GDP growth slowed in the June quarter but to a stronger than expected +0.7%qoq. This avoids a technical recession, but the current quarter is likely to see a 4% slump due to the lockdowns. While there is … Continue reading

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