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Oliver’s Insights

July 2nd, 2019
2018-19 saw a rough ride for investors but it turned out okay

Key points 2018-19 saw solid returns for diversified investors, helped by a sharp rise in share markets in the last six months & solid returns from most assets, except cash. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year were … Continue reading

June 20th, 2019
Don’t fight the Fed… or the ECB or RBA

Key points The ECB and the Fed now clearly look to be heading towards monetary easing, probably from July. We expect two rate cuts this year from the Fed. The shift back towards monetary easing by global central banks against … Continue reading

June 18th, 2019
Australian growth will be constrained - but here’s nine reasons why recession is unlikely

Key points Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A … Continue reading

June 14th, 2019
The $A still has more downside, but a lot of the weakness is behind us

Key points The Australian dollar likely faces more downside as Australian growth is weaker than US growth and the RBA is likely to cut more than the Fed. However, downside may be limited to around $US0.65 given that the $A … Continue reading

June 6th, 2019
The nine most important things I have learned about investing over the past 35 years

Key points My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 35 years are that: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; getting markets right … Continue reading

June 4th, 2019
RBA cuts rates to a new record low – why? will it work? how low will rates go? and what does it mean for investors?

Key points The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. Cutting the inflation target would be a big mistake. More rate cuts are … Continue reading

May 23rd, 2019
Australian house prices getting closer to the bottom, but don’t expect a return to boom time conditions

Key points The combination of the removal of the threat to property tax concessions, earlier interest rate cuts, financial help for first home buyers and APRA relaxing its 7% interest rate test points to house prices bottoming earlier and higher … Continue reading

May 14th, 2019
The trade war is back – what went wrong, what it means for share markets and Australia

Key points The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down. Our base case remains that a deal will be reached to resolve the issues, but the risks to global … Continue reading

May 6th, 2019
Seasonal patterns in shares – should we “sell in May and go away” and what about renewed trade war fears?

Key points Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern … Continue reading

April 29th, 2019
Inflation undershoots in Australia – why it’s a concern, is the RBA running out of ammo & what it means for investors?

Key points Surprisingly low inflation in Australia has increased the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates again. We continue to see the cash rate falling to 1% by year end and now see the first cut coming as … Continue reading

April 11th, 2019
The 2019 Australian Federal election and investors

Key points Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. With Labor promising higher taxes, larger government and more … Continue reading

April 3rd, 2019
The 2019-20 Australian Budget – the long-awaited surplus and the promise of more tax cuts ahead of the election

Key points The 2019-20 Budget “delivers” the long-awaited surplus and increased fiscal stimulus mainly via tax cuts/offsets. The main risk is that the revenue boost is not sustained & the budget continues to have relatively optimistic assumptions regarding wages growth. … Continue reading

March 26th, 2019
Global growth slowing, plunging bond yields & inverted yield curves – not terminal but shares are due a pull back

Key points The rebound in share markets since December has left them vulnerable to a short term pull back. Worries about global growth as evident in plunging bond yields and the flat/inverting US yield curve (and risks around trade) could … Continue reading

March 14th, 2019
“Millennial socialism” and the swing of the political pendulum back to the left – what it means for investors

Key points Growing support for higher taxes on the rich and greater government intervention in the economy suggest median voters have shifted to the left. Support for economic rationalist policies has fallen. The risk is that the shift away from … Continue reading

March 6th, 2019
Australia slides into a “per capita recession”

Key points. Australian growth slowed even more in the December quarter. Growth may bounce back a bit this year, but the housing downturn will likely constrain it to around 2-2.5%. As a result, unemployment is likely to drift up and … Continue reading

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Thanks so much for the tickets to Love Never Dies. We had a really nice night out.

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