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Oliver’s Insights

April 28th, 2020
Why super and growth assets like shares have to be seen as long-term investments

Key points As we’ve seen recently growth assets like shares have periods of bad short-term performance versus bonds & cash. But they provide superior long-term returns which is essential to grow retirement savings. It makes sense for superannuation to have … Continue reading

April 22nd, 2020
Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel – what does it mean for investors?

Key points After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news. However, positive news on the coronavirus outbreak is starting to get the upper hand – with evidence of curve flattening, an easing … Continue reading

April 16th, 2020
Magic money tree – QE & money printing and their part in the coronavirus economic rescue

Key points Central bank support to ensure the flow of money and credit through economies is an essential part of the global and Australian coronavirus economic rescue. This has increasingly involved quantitative easing which entails the printing of money. Higher … Continue reading

April 8th, 2020
What signposts can we watch to be confident shares have bottomed?

Key points While shares have rallied 15-20% from their March low and may have started a bottoming process, it’s still too early to say with confidence we have seen the low for this bear market. Key signposts to watch for … Continue reading

April 2nd, 2020
The coronavirus pandemic and the economy – a Q&A from an investment perspective

Key points Significant government support is essential to enable parts of the economy to successfully hibernate. This will be financed by borrowing and is affordable given Australia’s relatively low public debt and low borrowing rates. Central bank support to keep … Continue reading

March 26th, 2020
Is coronavirus driving a recession, depression or an economic hit like no other? What does it mean for the bear market in shares?

Key points Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to be long or short depends on how long the hit to the economy from coronavirus lasts. There are big differences between the current … Continue reading

March 19th, 2020
The threat to Australian house prices from coronavirus

Key points The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which … Continue reading

March 17th, 2020
Five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like these

Key points Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook. This makes it all the more important to stay focussed on the basic principles of successful … Continue reading

March 10th, 2020
The increasing economic threat from coronavirus - what to watch for and what should investors do

Key points The rout in financial markets has continued, on the back of coronavirus, made worse by a flow on to oil markets. The risk of a deeper hit to economic activity has risen. Key things to watch are the … Continue reading

March 2nd, 2020
The plunge in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

Key points Share markets have fallen sharply over the last week or so on the back of coronavirus concerns. Shares may still have more downside and the uncertainty around the coronavirus crisis is very high, but we are of the … Continue reading

February 25th, 2020
The increasing spread of Coronavirus – updated economic and investment market implications

Key points While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained … Continue reading

February 12th, 2020
From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

Key points The coronavirus outbreak is just another of a long list of worries. Our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news combined with a massive ramp up in the availability of information is arguably making us worse investors: … Continue reading

February 5th, 2020
The China Coronavirus outbreak – economic and investment market implications

Key points The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high … Continue reading

January 15th, 2020
Five charts to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Key points Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation after a strong run over the last year and with sentiment now very bullish. However, this year should still see good returns for investors as global growth edges … Continue reading

January 9th, 2020
Bushfires and the Australian economy

Key points The bushfires are expected to result in around a 0.4% hit to GDP mainly in the March quarter followed by a rebuilding boost. The hit to consumer spending and tourism is likely to linger longer. The drag on … Continue reading

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