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Oliver’s Insights

May 5th, 2021
The return of geopolitical risk? – what to watch over the remainder of 2021

Key points  Geopolitical issues generate much interest but don’t necessarily have a significant impact on markets. But geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative … Continue reading

April 21st, 2021
Three reasons why the long-term bull market in Australian house prices may be getting close to the end

Key points Australian home prices are currently in a cyclical upswing which likely has further to go into 2022. However, the longer-term bull market, that has seen above trend growth in property prices since the mid-1990s, may be close to … Continue reading

April 14th, 2021
The importance of starting point valuations for investment returns – and where are we now?

Key points Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings multiples – are a key driver of potential medium term investment returns. For growth assets it’s often more complicated with, eg, the level of interest rates playing a … Continue reading

April 6th, 2021
RBA on hold and likely to remain easy for a long while yet as full employment gets more of a look in

Key points The RBA left the cash rate at 0.1% at its April meeting. While the economy is recovering faster than expected the conditions for a rate hike – actual inflation sustainably in the 2-3% target zone and wages growth … Continue reading

March 30th, 2021
Market outlook Q&A – global recovery, vaccines, inflation, the risk of a share crash, Aust house prices and other issues

Key points Global recovery is on track. Vaccines are working. JobKeeper’s end won’t derail Australia’s recovery. Inflation could become an issue in the medium term. Shares are at risk of a correction but are supported by economic and earnings recovery. … Continue reading

March 10th, 2021
Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?

Key points The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go. But it’s normal for the second 12 months of a cyclical bull market to see slower returns … Continue reading

March 4th, 2021
Bitcoin – it’s not a currency, it’s not a capital asset…so what is it?

Key points Digital currencies and blockchain technology may have a lot to offer – but that does not mean Bitcoin will be it. Due to extreme volatility, high transaction costs and slow processing, Bitcoin does not cut it as digital … Continue reading

February 23rd, 2021
The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider

Key points Higher bond yields are normal in economic recovery and should not be a major problem for shares if they are matched by rising earnings. But too rapid a rise in bond yields risks driving a deeper correction in … Continue reading

February 17th, 2021
Australian house prices on the upswing again – seven things to bear in mind about the Australian property market

Key points Expect average Australian home prices to rise 5-10% this year and next as ultra-low interest rates and economic recovery feed through. However, the outlook is divergent – with houses expected to outperform units and smaller cities and regional … Continue reading

February 9th, 2021
Nine common mistakes investors make

Key points Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. The easiest … Continue reading

January 28th, 2021
Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year

Key points Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation, but investment markets should provide solid returns this year on the back of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates. Seven key global charts worth keeping an eye … Continue reading

January 20th, 2021
US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields

Key points US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity. Global and Australian recovery will boost bond yields and there is good reason to believe that (after yet another false ending) the now … Continue reading

January 11th, 2021
2021 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Key points 2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; US politics; China tensions; inflation; & … Continue reading

December 17th, 2020
The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook – peak deficit has likely now been seen

Key points Reflecting the faster than expected Australian economic recovery, the Federal Government has upgraded its growth forecasts and downgraded its unemployment expectations. This in turn, along with higher than expected revenue from higher iron ore prices, has seen the … Continue reading

December 9th, 2020
Review of 2020, outlook for 2021 – from pandemic to recovery

Key points 2020 was dominated by the coronavirus pandemic but shares saw okay returns on the back of policy stimulus and vaccine optimism – resulting in constrained but positive returns for balanced growth super funds. For 2021, the combination of … Continue reading

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Tony Laycock

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