- After a strong rebound since December share markets are at risk of a short-term pull back. However, despite this we see this year as being a decent year for share market returns.
- Five key global charts to watch as to whether this will be the case are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth.
- US recession indicators remain ok, but the yield curve is worth watching.
- So far so good, but the PMIs do need to stabilise soon and the trade threat needs to continue to recede.