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Blog

December 20th, 2018
The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)

Key points

  • The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth.
  • However, with US interest rates approaching the “neutral” zone, some interest sensitive sectors slowing, with various headwinds to growth, and inflation stabilising around 2% the Fed can afford to slow down from here. We expect it to pause in the first half next year and only raise rates once in the second half.
  • A more cautious Fed should provide some support for markets although more falls are possible into early next year before markets bottom and head higher as investors realise the US/global economy is not going into recession soon.

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Thanks so much for the tickets to Love Never Dies. We had a really nice night out.

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