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Oliver’s Insights

April 11th, 2019
The 2019 Australian Federal election and investors

Key points Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. With Labor promising higher taxes, larger government and more … Continue reading

April 3rd, 2019
The 2019-20 Australian Budget – the long-awaited surplus and the promise of more tax cuts ahead of the election

Key points The 2019-20 Budget “delivers” the long-awaited surplus and increased fiscal stimulus mainly via tax cuts/offsets. The main risk is that the revenue boost is not sustained & the budget continues to have relatively optimistic assumptions regarding wages growth. … Continue reading

March 26th, 2019
Global growth slowing, plunging bond yields & inverted yield curves – not terminal but shares are due a pull back

Key points The rebound in share markets since December has left them vulnerable to a short term pull back. Worries about global growth as evident in plunging bond yields and the flat/inverting US yield curve (and risks around trade) could … Continue reading

March 14th, 2019
“Millennial socialism” and the swing of the political pendulum back to the left – what it means for investors

Key points Growing support for higher taxes on the rich and greater government intervention in the economy suggest median voters have shifted to the left. Support for economic rationalist policies has fallen. The risk is that the shift away from … Continue reading

March 6th, 2019
Australia slides into a “per capita recession”

Key points. Australian growth slowed even more in the December quarter. Growth may bounce back a bit this year, but the housing downturn will likely constrain it to around 2-2.5%. As a result, unemployment is likely to drift up and … Continue reading

February 27th, 2019
Why I still love dividends and you should love them too

Key points Dividends are great for investors. They augur well for earnings growth, provide a degree of security in uncertain times, are likely to comprise a relatively high proportion of returns going forward and provide a relatively stable source of … Continue reading

February 21st, 2019
Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Key points After a strong rebound since December share markets are at risk of a short-term pull back. However, despite this we see this year as being a decent year for share market returns. Five key global charts to watch … Continue reading

February 13th, 2019
Five great charts on investing – why they are particularly important now

Key points Successful investing should be simple but increasing rules, regulations, choices and social media are making it anything but. At its core, it is still simple though. These five great charts focus on critical aspects of investing: the power … Continue reading

February 7th, 2019
Why growth in China is unlikely to slow too far and why it needs to save less and spend more

Key points China’s economy is slowing but not collapsing as the services sector holds up. A further slowing is likely in the short term, but policy stimulus is likely to see growth improve in the second half, giving 2019 growth … Continue reading

January 23rd, 2019
Australian housing downturn Q&A – how bad will it get?

Key points Australian home prices are likely to fall another 5-10% this year driven by a further 15% or so fall in Sydney & Melbourne. Tight credit, rising supply and falling price expectations are the main negatives. Uncertainty around the … Continue reading

January 15th, 2019
2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Key points Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was. Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares. Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global … Continue reading

December 20th, 2018
The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)

Key points The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth. However, … Continue reading

December 12th, 2018
The Australian economy in 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates

Key points. Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy will likely see growth constrained to around 2.5-3%. As a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation … Continue reading

December 6th, 2018
Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension

Key points 2018 saw reasonable global economic and profit growth and still low interest rates but it has been a rough year for investors with worries about the Fed, trade wars and global growth causing volatility and poor returns. 2019 … Continue reading

November 22nd, 2018
Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

Key points The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely. Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the … Continue reading

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