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Oliver’s Insights

February 1st, 2018
Higher global inflation and higher bond yields – what’s the risk and implications for other assets like shares & property?

Key points Rising global growth and rising commodity prices indicate the risks to inflation are gradually moving to the upside. This is most acute in the US with the Fed likely to raise rates more than the market expects this year. This supports … Continue reading

January 24th, 2018
2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Key points 2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up. Watch US inflation, bond … Continue reading

December 14th, 2017
The Fed hikes again, still gradual but likely to be a bit faster next year – implications for investors and Australia

Key Points The Fed has raised interest rates for the fifth time since first raising rates this cycle two years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 1.0-1.25% to 1.25-1.5%. This reflects the ongoing strength of the US economy. Given … Continue reading

December 6th, 2017
Review of 2017, outlook for 2018 – still in the “sweet spot” but expect more volatility ahead

Key points Despite the usual worry list, 2017 has been pretty good for investors as global growth and profits accelerated and central banks stayed benign as inflation stayed low. The “sweet spot” combination of solid global growth and profits and yet low inflation  … Continue reading

November 29th, 2017
Why cautious optimism is better for your investment health than perma pessimism

Key points Worries about an imminent financial crisis remain high. Australians seem particularly negative about the year ahead. However, the global economy is the strongest it’s been in years. More fundamentally, cautious optimism is essential if you wish to succeed as an investor. … Continue reading

November 23rd, 2017
Is Australia’s economy “built on shaky foundations” that are “about to collapse”?

Key points The Chinese economy is not about to collapse and isn’t likely to be at “peak commodity demand”. The failure of the Australian economy to crash after the end of the commodity price boom and mining investment boom early this decade highlights … Continue reading

November 22nd, 2017
Bubbles, busts, investor psychology…and bitcoin

Key points Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and along with crowd psychology helps explain why asset prices go through periodic bubbles and busts. The key for investors is to be … Continue reading

November 8th, 2017
The medium term investment return outlook remains constrained

Key points A further fall in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained medium term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.5% on our projections. For investors the key remains … Continue reading

October 24th, 2017
Five great charts on investing for income (or cash flow)

Key points At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex. These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing for income (or cash flow): there are lots of alternatives to bank deposits for … Continue reading

October 18th, 2017
Where are we in the global investment cycle and what’s the risk of a 1987 style crash?

Key points There is still little sign of the sort of excesses that precede major economic downturns and major bear markets suggesting that (although US shares are overdue a decent correction) we are still a fair way from the top … Continue reading

October 11th, 2017
Will Australian house prices crash? Five reasons why it’s more complicated than you think!

Key points Talk of a property crash is likely to ramp up again with signs that the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are cooling. But the Australian property market is a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest. We continue to expect … Continue reading

September 21st, 2017
The US Federal Reserve starts quantitative tightening

Key points The Fed has confirmed it will start reducing its balance sheet by not reinvesting bonds up to set limits as they mature. This amounts to quantitative tightening as it will start to reverse some of the quantitative easing that occurred … Continue reading

September 20th, 2017
Where are we in the search for yield? Is it about to reverse as the Fed starts quantitative tightening?

Key points It’s hard to argue that the search for yield has gone too far given how low bond yields are. A range of assets still provide much better yields than cash and bonds. However, bond yields are likely to gradually trend … Continue reading

September 11th, 2017
Another five great charts on investing

Key points At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex. Here are another five great charts that help illuminate key aspects of investing: the importance of time in the market relative to timing; the … Continue reading

September 6th, 2017
The Australian economy bounces back again – five reasons why some further pick up is likely and implications for investors

Key points Australian growth bounced back in the June quarter helped by consumer spending, investment and trade. There is good reason to expect growth to pick up further going forward: the drag from mining investment is fading, non-mining investment is looking better, public … Continue reading

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