Key points Investing during times of uncertainty can be nerve wracking, but even in good times it can be problematic. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. The key … Continue reading →

Key points So far President Trump has been positive for share markets but this year the focus is increasingly shifting to populist policies with greater risk for investors. The key risks to keep an eye on in this regard relate to trade conflict … Continue reading →

Key points If you are worried about a major bear market, the US economy is the key to watch. While traditional measures of the US yield curve have flattened sending warning signs about future growth, it has given false signals in the past, … Continue reading →

Key points 2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors, but it was a story of two halves with strong December half returns but more volatility in the past 6 months. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year include: … Continue reading →

Key points The RBA should avoid calls to raise interest rates prematurely just to prepare households for higher global rates. Such a move would be like shooting yourself in the foot in order to practice going to the hospital. Nor … Continue reading →

Key points US actions in recent weeks have increased the risk of a full-blown trade war – primarily between the US and China – with a more significant economic impact. So far the bulk of the tariffs are just proposed so there … Continue reading →

Key points Global debt levels have reached new records. Countries with very high gross debt to GDP include Japan, Belgium, Canada, Portugal and Greece. The main areas of rising debt since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have been public debt … Continue reading →

Key points Chinese economic growth has been stable since 2016 at around 6.8%. Expect Chinese growth this year of around 6.5% and inflation of 2.5-3%. Key risks regarding China relate to the policy focus shifting to reducing leverage and reform, rapid … Continue reading →

Key points A populist coalition government in Italy is negative for Italian assets. Lingering uncertainty about a push for Italy to exit the Euro is likely a negative for the Euro too, though an Itexit and a Euro break up remain unlikely. … Continue reading →

Introduction Investing can be frustrating and depressing at times, particularly if you don’t understand how markets work and don’t have the right mindset. The good news is that the basics of investing are timeless, and some have a knack of encapsulating these in … Continue reading →

Key points The 2018-19 contains a small welcome boost to households and keeps the budget on track for a surplus. The main risk is that the revenue boost seen this year is not sustained & the budget continues to have relatively optimistic assumptions … Continue reading →

Key points The RBA has left interest rates on hold for 21 months. A rate hike is now unlikely until 2020: as growth is likely to remain weaker than the RBA expects; wages growth and inflation are likely to remain low for … Continue reading →

Key points President Trump’s actions on trade are mainly aimed at achieving better access for US exports to China and better treatment of US intellectual property by China. They are not primarily aimed at traditional US allies, reducing the risk … Continue reading →

Key points Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne likely have more downside, but a crash is  unlikely in the absence of much higher mortgage rates, much higher supply and a long continuation of recent high construction activity. Other cities will perform better. Property … Continue reading →

Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue … Continue reading →