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Oliver’s Insights

October 15th, 2019
Five great charts on investing for income (or cash flow)

Key points The collapse in interest rates has made it harder for many relying on interest on bank deposits for income. These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing for income (or cash flow): there are alternatives to … Continue reading

September 30th, 2019
Has Australia really had three recessions in the last 28 years?

Key points Some have questioned whether Australia has really gone 28 years without recession because of three per capita recessions in the last 28 years. However, these per capita recessions were not comparable to the recessions of the early 1980s … Continue reading

September 25th, 2019
Investment returns have been good, but they are likely to slow over the next five years

Key points The ongoing slide in investment yields across major asset classes points to a more constrained medium-term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 5.6% pa on our projections. The key for … Continue reading

September 17th, 2019
Will the world slip up on oil again? – after oil prices spike as attacks disrupt Saudi production

Key points Oil prices have risen over the last few days reflecting drone attacks that impact 6% of world oil supply. The choke point for global growth from higher oil prices is normally a doubling in prices. We are a … Continue reading

September 11th, 2019
Australian house prices back from the abyss – seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

Key points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been undersupplied. The combination of rate cuts, … Continue reading

September 5th, 2019
Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia

Key points Australian growth is likely to remain weak over the next year. Expect further monetary & fiscal stimulus. However, while the risks have gone up, recession remains unlikely: tax cuts should help growth in the current half year; the … Continue reading

August 28th, 2019
Negative rates, QE & other measures the RBA may deploy – why? will it work? what would it mean for investors?

Key points The RBA is likely to first exhaust conventional easing by cutting the cash rate to 0.5% by year end before deploying unconventional measures beyond forward guidance which is already being used. Unconventional monetary policy measures could help the … Continue reading

August 20th, 2019
Plunging bond yields & weak share markets amidst talk of recession – what does it mean for investors?

Key points Worries about the US trade wars and global growth are continuing to cause volatility in investment markets. While the risks have increased, we remain of the view that recession is unlikely. Share markets may still fall further on … Continue reading

August 6th, 2019
Escalating US-China trade war – triggering (another) correction in share markets

Key points The trade war between the US and China is escalating, posing a rising threat to global growth. Although we remain of the view that a deal will be reached, the risk has increased. Share markets may need to … Continue reading

August 1st, 2019
The Fed cuts rates

Key points The US Federal Reserve has cut the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% citing uncertainties around the outlook for growth and inflation. The key uncertainties relate to trade and weaker global growth along with ongoing low inflation. We expect … Continue reading

July 30th, 2019
Australian shares hit record highs – is the decade long underperformance versus global shares over?

Key points The long time taken for Australian shares to regain their 2007 high and their underperformance compared to global shares this decade reflects a combination of payback after their strong performance last decade, tighter monetary policy, the strong $A … Continue reading

July 23rd, 2019
The longest US economic expansion ever – does this mean recession is around the corner?

Key points Where the US economy goes is critical to the outlook for shares, including for the Australian share market. While the yield curve is flashing warning signs and issues around trade and Iran could cause short-term volatility, the excesses … Continue reading

July 2nd, 2019
2018-19 saw a rough ride for investors but it turned out okay

Key points 2018-19 saw solid returns for diversified investors, helped by a sharp rise in share markets in the last six months & solid returns from most assets, except cash. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year were … Continue reading

June 20th, 2019
Don’t fight the Fed… or the ECB or RBA

Key points The ECB and the Fed now clearly look to be heading towards monetary easing, probably from July. We expect two rate cuts this year from the Fed. The shift back towards monetary easing by global central banks against … Continue reading

June 18th, 2019
Australian growth will be constrained - but here’s nine reasons why recession is unlikely

Key points Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A … Continue reading

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We are confident that we will continue to receive excellent advice and services from PFG and have not hesitated recommending them to our families and friends.

Anna Hristodoulakis and Milorad Lazic

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