Key points The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely. Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the … Continue reading →

Key points Getting your personal finances right can be a challenge. Here are 13 tips that may be of use: shop around when it comes to financial services; don’t take on too much debt; allow that interest rates can go … Continue reading →

Key points It’s still too early to be sure that last month’s pullback in shares is over but we remain of the view that it was not the start of a deep bear market and that the trend in shares … Continue reading →

Key points The current pullback in shares has been triggered by a range of things – but most notably worries about rising US interest rates and the US/China conflict. Shares may still have more downside, but we are of the … Continue reading →

Key points Starting point valuations for shares matter a lot in terms of medium-term return potential and vulnerability to share market falls. Basically, the cheaper the better. Developed market shares are not dirt cheap (and haven’t been for several years) … Continue reading →

Key points Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to see top to bottom falls of around 20% as credit conditions tighten, supply rises and a negative feedback loop from falling prices risks developing. Other cities will perform better … Continue reading →

Key points A surge in financial information and opinion combined with our inclination to focus on negative news risks making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more reactive, less reflective & more short term. This is potentially harmful to … Continue reading →

Key points Whether a recession is imminent or not in the US, and more broadly globally, is critically important in terms of whether a major bear market in shares is on the way. Five key global charts to watch in getting a … Continue reading →

Key points The key lessons for investors from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) are that: there is always a cycle; while each cycle is different, markets are pushed to extremes of valuation and sentiment; high returns come with higher risk; be sceptical of financial … Continue reading →

Key points The Australian economy grew solidly over the last year. While recession remains very unlikely, the combination of a slowing housing cycle, constraints on consumer spending and still subdued business investment will likely see growth slow going forward to around 2.5-3%. As … Continue reading →

Key points The continuing slide in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained mediumterm return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.2% on our projections. The key for investors is to have … Continue reading →

Key points The downtrend in the $A from 2011 likely has more to go. The $A is near fair value, but the increasing negative interest rate gap to the US & a messy outlook for commodities suggest a fall to $US0.70 by year … Continue reading →

Key points The fear of rising inflation and bond yields that dominated investor thinking earlier this year has faded thanks to a combination of: ongoing relatively benign inflation in the US; Fed hikes remaining gradual; strong earnings growth helping distract share market investors; trade … Continue reading →

Key points Investing during times of uncertainty can be nerve wracking, but even in good times it can be problematic. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. The key … Continue reading →

Key points So far President Trump has been positive for share markets but this year the focus is increasingly shifting to populist policies with greater risk for investors. The key risks to keep an eye on in this regard relate to trade conflict … Continue reading →