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Oliver’s Insights

September 27th, 2018
Successful investing despite 115 million worries and Truth Decay – how to turn down the noise

Key points A surge in financial information and opinion combined with our inclination to focus on negative news risks making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more reactive, less reflective & more short term. This is potentially harmful to … Continue reading

September 20th, 2018
Five charts to keep an eye on regarding the global economy

Key points Whether a recession is imminent or not in the US, and more broadly globally, is critically important in terms of whether a major bear market in shares is on the way. Five key global charts to watch in getting a … Continue reading

September 12th, 2018
Seven lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for investors

Key points The key lessons for investors from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) are that: there is always a cycle; while each cycle is different, markets are pushed to extremes of valuation and sentiment; high returns come with higher risk; be sceptical of financial … Continue reading

September 6th, 2018
Five things you need to know about the Australian economy

Key points The Australian economy grew solidly over the last year. While recession remains very unlikely, the combination of a slowing housing cycle, constraints on consumer spending and still subdued business investment will likely see growth slow going forward to around 2.5-3%. As … Continue reading

August 28th, 2018
Investment returns over next five years are likely to slow

Key points The continuing slide in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained mediumterm return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.2% on our projections. The key for investors is to have … Continue reading

August 21st, 2018
Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally

Key points The downtrend in the $A from 2011 likely has more to go. The $A is near fair value, but the increasing negative interest rate gap to the US & a messy outlook for commodities suggest a fall to $US0.70 by year … Continue reading

August 14th, 2018
What happened to all the worries about rising inflation and bond yields? Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey & other things

Key points The fear of rising inflation and bond yields that dominated investor thinking earlier this year has faded thanks to a combination of: ongoing relatively benign inflation in the US; Fed hikes remaining gradual; strong earnings growth helping distract share market investors; trade … Continue reading

August 7th, 2018
Nine keys to successful investing

Key points Investing during times of uncertainty can be nerve wracking, but even in good times it can be problematic. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. The key … Continue reading

July 26th, 2018
Trumponomics and investment markets

Key points So far President Trump has been positive for share markets but this year the focus is increasingly shifting to populist policies with greater risk for investors. The key risks to keep an eye on in this regard relate to trade conflict … Continue reading

July 19th, 2018
The US economy – does the flattening yield curve indicate recession is imminent?

Key points If you are worried about a major bear market, the US economy is the key to watch. While traditional measures of the US yield curve have flattened sending warning signs about future growth, it has given false signals in the past, … Continue reading

July 4th, 2018
2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors – but there’s a few storm clouds around

Key points 2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors, but it was a story of two halves with strong December half returns but more volatility in the past 6 months. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year include: … Continue reading

June 28th, 2018
Should the RBA raise rates to prepare households for higher global rates?

Key points The RBA should avoid calls to raise interest rates prematurely just to prepare households for higher global rates. Such a move would be like shooting yourself in the foot in order to practice going to the hospital. Nor … Continue reading

June 21st, 2018
Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely

Key points US actions in recent weeks have increased the risk of a full-blown trade war – primarily between the US and China – with a more significant economic impact. So far the bulk of the tariffs are just proposed so there … Continue reading

June 19th, 2018
Putting the global “debt bomb” in perspective – seven reasons to be alert but not alarmed

Key points Global debt levels have reached new records. Countries with very high gross debt to GDP include Japan, Belgium, Canada, Portugal and Greece. The main areas of rising debt since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have been public debt … Continue reading

June 4th, 2018
China’s economy is pretty stable – but what about high debt levels and other risks?

Key points Chinese economic growth has been stable since 2016 at around 6.8%. Expect Chinese growth this year of around 6.5% and inflation of 2.5-3%. Key risks regarding China relate to the policy focus shifting to reducing leverage and reform, rapid … Continue reading

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