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Oliver’s Insights

September 3rd, 2020
Market outlook Q&A - disconnect to real economy, growth v value, vaccines, property, gold, inflation and other issues

Key Points Share markets often lead economic recoveries. Share markets are likely to see a rotation in favour of cyclical stocks relative to growth stocks and this would favour non-US and Australian Share over US Shares. Markets have only partially … Continue reading

August 24th, 2020
Seven reasons why the trend in shares will likely remain up, albeit with bumps along the way

Key points Shares have had a strong run up from their March lows with US shares now at a record high. While shares are vulnerable through the seasonally weak months ahead in the run up to the US election, the positives – including … Continue reading

August 12th, 2020
Three reasons why the coronavirus crisis might fix Australia’s housing affordability crisis

Key points For more than a decade now Australia has had a chronic problem with poor housing affordability. While various things may have played a role the key driver of poor affordability in Australia has been a surge in population … Continue reading

August 4th, 2020
RBA holds – but more stimulus likely as Victorian lockdown to knock at least $12bn from national GDP

Key points Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter. The further hit to the economy and likely additional upwards pressure … Continue reading

July 28th, 2020
US dollar breaking down, gold and the $A breaking up – what does it mean for investors?

Key points The US dollar looks to have peaked in part reflecting reduced safe haven demand with more downside likely. The gold price has broken out to a record high reflecting a declining US dollar, investors demand for an inflation … Continue reading

July 23rd, 2020
Australian economic and fiscal update – record budget deficits, but more to come

Key points The Government expects the federal budget deficit to peak at a record $184.5bn this financial year. That’s around 9.7% of GDP, its highest since the end of WW2. Ultimately, we expect it to be around $220bn as the … Continue reading

July 15th, 2020
The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope – and why concerns about Australia’s budget deficit are overblown

Key points The threat to the recovery from the “second wave” of coronavirus cases necessitates additional fiscal support in Australia, with the Government recognising this. Australia’s federal budget deficit is now expected to peak at around $220bn this financial year, … Continue reading

July 8th, 2020
2019-20 saw poor returns - but it could have been much worse

Key points 2019-20 saw a rough ride for investors as coronavirus hit resulting in small losses for well diversified investors. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year were to: maintain a well-diversified portfolio; timing market moves is hard; … Continue reading

June 30th, 2020
The US presidential election – implications for investors

Key points The run up to the US election on 3rd November has the potential to see increased share market volatility if it looks increasingly likely Biden will win and if Trump ramps up tensions with China (and maybe Europe) … Continue reading

June 17th, 2020
How worried should investors be about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases?

Key points A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely. However, provided any second wave is relatively mild in terms of pressure … Continue reading

June 10th, 2020
Shares climb a “wall of worry” - but is it sustainable?

Key points The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions. Shares are vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. … Continue reading

June 1st, 2020
Australian house prices starting to fall – collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead

Key points Australia capital city home prices fell -0.5% in May. Significant policy support & the earlier reopening of the economy have made our worst-case scenario for a 20% decline in average Australian house prices unlikely. However, our base case … Continue reading

May 25th, 2020
10 medium to longer-term implications from the coronavirus shock

Key points Key medium to longer-term implications flowing from the coronavirus shock are: lower for longer interest rates; a further blow to globalisation; another leg up in the US/China cold war; bigger government and public debt; a long-term risk of … Continue reading

May 13th, 2020
The coming surge in Australia’s budget deficit and public debt due to coronavirus – can we afford it?

Key points Australia’s federal budget deficit is expected to peak at around $200bn in 2020-21, or around 10% of GDP which will be the highest since the end of WW2. This will see net public debt nearly double as a … Continue reading

May 6th, 2020
The Lucky Country - three reasons why Australia may come through this period of global misery better than most countries

Key points Australia has performed better than many countries in “controlling” coronavirus, it has a stronger economic policy response & its major trading partner is 2-3 mths ahead of the rest of the world into economic recovery. If, as a … Continue reading

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