Key points  Geopolitical issues generate much interest but don’t necessarily have a significant impact on markets. But geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative … Continue reading →

Key points Australian home prices are currently in a cyclical upswing which likely has further to go into 2022. However, the longer-term bull market, that has seen above trend growth in property prices since the mid-1990s, may be close to … Continue reading →

Key points Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings multiples – are a key driver of potential medium term investment returns. For growth assets it’s often more complicated with, eg, the level of interest rates playing a … Continue reading →

Key points The RBA left the cash rate at 0.1% at its April meeting. While the economy is recovering faster than expected the conditions for a rate hike – actual inflation sustainably in the 2-3% target zone and wages growth … Continue reading →

Key points Global recovery is on track. Vaccines are working. JobKeeper’s end won’t derail Australia’s recovery. Inflation could become an issue in the medium term. Shares are at risk of a correction but are supported by economic and earnings recovery. … Continue reading →

Key points The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go. But it’s normal for the second 12 months of a cyclical bull market to see slower returns … Continue reading →

Key points Digital currencies and blockchain technology may have a lot to offer – but that does not mean Bitcoin will be it. Due to extreme volatility, high transaction costs and slow processing, Bitcoin does not cut it as digital … Continue reading →

Key points Higher bond yields are normal in economic recovery and should not be a major problem for shares if they are matched by rising earnings. But too rapid a rise in bond yields risks driving a deeper correction in … Continue reading →

Key points Expect average Australian home prices to rise 5-10% this year and next as ultra-low interest rates and economic recovery feed through. However, the outlook is divergent – with houses expected to outperform units and smaller cities and regional … Continue reading →

Key points Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. The easiest … Continue reading →

Key points Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation, but investment markets should provide solid returns this year on the back of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates. Seven key global charts worth keeping an eye … Continue reading →

Key points US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity. Global and Australian recovery will boost bond yields and there is good reason to believe that (after yet another false ending) the now … Continue reading →

Key points 2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; US politics; China tensions; inflation; & … Continue reading →

Key points Reflecting the faster than expected Australian economic recovery, the Federal Government has upgraded its growth forecasts and downgraded its unemployment expectations. This in turn, along with higher than expected revenue from higher iron ore prices, has seen the … Continue reading →

Key points 2020 was dominated by the coronavirus pandemic but shares saw okay returns on the back of policy stimulus and vaccine optimism – resulting in constrained but positive returns for balanced growth super funds. For 2021, the combination of … Continue reading →