Key points The bushfires are expected to result in around a 0.4% hit to GDP mainly in the March quarter followed by a rebuilding boost. The hit to consumer spending and tourism is likely to linger longer. The drag on … Continue reading →

Key points Despite ongoing bouts of volatility, 2020 is likely to provide solid returns, albeit slower than seen in 2019. Recession remains unlikely (it’s a bigger risk in Australia) & so too is a long deep bear market in shares. … Continue reading →

Key points 2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global … Continue reading →

Key points While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds & cash, they provide superior long-term returns. It makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. The best approach is to simply recognise … Continue reading →

Introduction The world of investing can be confusing and scary at times. But fortunately, the basics of investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is insightful … Continue reading →

Key points The collapse in interest rates has made it harder for many relying on interest on bank deposits for income. These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing for income (or cash flow): there are alternatives to … Continue reading →

Key points Some have questioned whether Australia has really gone 28 years without recession because of three per capita recessions in the last 28 years. However, these per capita recessions were not comparable to the recessions of the early 1980s … Continue reading →

Key points The ongoing slide in investment yields across major asset classes points to a more constrained medium-term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 5.6% pa on our projections. The key for … Continue reading →

Key points Oil prices have risen over the last few days reflecting drone attacks that impact 6% of world oil supply. The choke point for global growth from higher oil prices is normally a doubling in prices. We are a … Continue reading →

Key points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been undersupplied. The combination of rate cuts, … Continue reading →

Key points Australian growth is likely to remain weak over the next year. Expect further monetary & fiscal stimulus. However, while the risks have gone up, recession remains unlikely: tax cuts should help growth in the current half year; the … Continue reading →

Key points The RBA is likely to first exhaust conventional easing by cutting the cash rate to 0.5% by year end before deploying unconventional measures beyond forward guidance which is already being used. Unconventional monetary policy measures could help the … Continue reading →

Key points Worries about the US trade wars and global growth are continuing to cause volatility in investment markets. While the risks have increased, we remain of the view that recession is unlikely. Share markets may still fall further on … Continue reading →

Key points The trade war between the US and China is escalating, posing a rising threat to global growth. Although we remain of the view that a deal will be reached, the risk has increased. Share markets may need to … Continue reading →

Key points The US Federal Reserve has cut the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% citing uncertainties around the outlook for growth and inflation. The key uncertainties relate to trade and weaker global growth along with ongoing low inflation. We expect … Continue reading →