Key points While shares have rallied 15-20% from their March low and may have started a bottoming process, it’s still too early to say with confidence we have seen the low for this bear market. Key signposts to watch for … Continue reading →

Key points Significant government support is essential to enable parts of the economy to successfully hibernate. This will be financed by borrowing and is affordable given Australia’s relatively low public debt and low borrowing rates. Central bank support to keep … Continue reading →

Key points Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to be long or short depends on how long the hit to the economy from coronavirus lasts. There are big differences between the current … Continue reading →

Key points The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which … Continue reading →

Key points Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook. This makes it all the more important to stay focussed on the basic principles of successful … Continue reading →

Key points The rout in financial markets has continued, on the back of coronavirus, made worse by a flow on to oil markets. The risk of a deeper hit to economic activity has risen. Key things to watch are the … Continue reading →

Key points Share markets have fallen sharply over the last week or so on the back of coronavirus concerns. Shares may still have more downside and the uncertainty around the coronavirus crisis is very high, but we are of the … Continue reading →

Key points While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained … Continue reading →

Key points The coronavirus outbreak is just another of a long list of worries. Our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news combined with a massive ramp up in the availability of information is arguably making us worse investors: … Continue reading →

Key points The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high … Continue reading →

Key points Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation after a strong run over the last year and with sentiment now very bullish. However, this year should still see good returns for investors as global growth edges … Continue reading →

Key points The bushfires are expected to result in around a 0.4% hit to GDP mainly in the March quarter followed by a rebuilding boost. The hit to consumer spending and tourism is likely to linger longer. The drag on … Continue reading →

Key points Despite ongoing bouts of volatility, 2020 is likely to provide solid returns, albeit slower than seen in 2019. Recession remains unlikely (it’s a bigger risk in Australia) & so too is a long deep bear market in shares. … Continue reading →

Key points 2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global … Continue reading →

Key points While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds & cash, they provide superior long-term returns. It makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. The best approach is to simply recognise … Continue reading →