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Oliver’s Insights

November 8th, 2020
Joe Biden on track to become US president. Implications for investors and Australia

Key points The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency. While there is a possibility that the Democrats could … Continue reading

November 3rd, 2020
RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work?

Key points The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program. While the economic boost is likely to be small compared to that provided by the recent Budget, the further … Continue reading

October 29th, 2020
Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now?

Key points This economic downturn and recovery differs from those of the past in that: the downturn was driven by a government shutdown; fiscal and monetary support has been faster and bigger; forced asset sales have been headed off; it’s … Continue reading

October 21st, 2020
Expect slower medium-term returns

Key points The continuing decline in investment yields on the back of falling interest rates and bond yields has seen our medium term (5 to 10 year) return projections for a diversified mix of assets fall to around 4.8% pa. … Continue reading

October 14th, 2020
Nine keys to successful investing – and why they are more important than ever in the face of the coronavirus shock

Key points Even in good times successful investing can be stressful. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. The key rules I think are: make the … Continue reading

October 6th, 2020
The 2020-21 Australian Budget – spend, spend, spend as the focus remains on recovery and jobs, jobs, jobs

Key points The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at a record $213.7bn this financial year. That’s around 11% of GDP, its highest since the end of WW2. The risk is the deficit will be worse at … Continue reading

September 30th, 2020
Biden versus Trump - the US presidential election is looming as the next big event for investors

Key points The US election has significant potential to add to volatility in investment markets. A Trump victory will mean more of the same and would likely initially be more positive for US than global and Australian shares. By contrast … Continue reading

September 22nd, 2020
Australia’s “eye popping” budget deficit and public debt blow out – can it be paid off? Does it matter?

Key points The Australian Federal budget next month will likely see a further blow out in the budget deficit due to the ongoing hit to tax revenue & more stimulus. We expect an “eye popping” 2020-21 deficit of around $230bn. … Continue reading

September 3rd, 2020
Market outlook Q&A - disconnect to real economy, growth v value, vaccines, property, gold, inflation and other issues

Key Points Share markets often lead economic recoveries. Share markets are likely to see a rotation in favour of cyclical stocks relative to growth stocks and this would favour non-US and Australian Share over US Shares. Markets have only partially … Continue reading

September 3rd, 2020
Market outlook Q&A – disconnect to real economy, growth v value, vaccines, property, gold, inflation and other issues

Key points Share markets often lead economic recoveries. Share markets are likely to see a rotation in favour of cyclical stocks relative to growth stocks and this would favour non-US and Australian shares over US shares. Markets have only partially … Continue reading

August 24th, 2020
Seven reasons why the trend in shares will likely remain up, albeit with bumps along the way

Key points Shares have had a strong run up from their March lows with US shares now at a record high. While shares are vulnerable through the seasonally weak months ahead in the run up to the US election, the positives – including … Continue reading

August 12th, 2020
Three reasons why the coronavirus crisis might fix Australia’s housing affordability crisis

Key points For more than a decade now Australia has had a chronic problem with poor housing affordability. While various things may have played a role the key driver of poor affordability in Australia has been a surge in population … Continue reading

August 4th, 2020
RBA holds – but more stimulus likely as Victorian lockdown to knock at least $12bn from national GDP

Key points Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter. The further hit to the economy and likely additional upwards pressure … Continue reading

July 28th, 2020
US dollar breaking down, gold and the $A breaking up – what does it mean for investors?

Key points The US dollar looks to have peaked in part reflecting reduced safe haven demand with more downside likely. The gold price has broken out to a record high reflecting a declining US dollar, investors demand for an inflation … Continue reading

July 23rd, 2020
Australian economic and fiscal update – record budget deficits, but more to come

Key points The Government expects the federal budget deficit to peak at a record $184.5bn this financial year. That’s around 9.7% of GDP, its highest since the end of WW2. Ultimately, we expect it to be around $220bn as the … Continue reading

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