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Oliver’s Insights

September 6th, 2017
The Australian economy bounces back again – five reasons why some further pick up is likely and implications for investors

Key points Australian growth bounced back in the June quarter helped by consumer spending, investment and trade. There is good reason to expect growth to pick up further going forward: the drag from mining investment is fading, non-mining investment is looking better, public … Continue reading

August 24th, 2017
The Global Financial Crisis 10 years on – lessons learned and can it happen again?

Key points The key lessons for investors from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) are that: high returns come with higher risk; while each boom bust cycle is different, markets are pushed to extremes of valuation and sentiment; be sceptical of … Continue reading

August 15th, 2017
The threat of war with North Korea – implications for investors

Key points Tensions with North Korea have clearly increased causing volatility in share markets. The risk of war has grown but a diplomatic solution  remains most likely although there could still be more volatility before this is finally achieved. Historically, shares have … Continue reading

August 2nd, 2017
The break higher in the Australian dollar is likely to be limited – this is not 2007 all over again!

Key points The $A has been pushed higher lately by a weaker $US, a rebound in commodity prices and technical considerations. The rising $A is a significant risk for the Australian economy and will constrain growth and keep inflation below target for longer. While … Continue reading

July 25th, 2017
Five great charts on investing

Key points At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex. These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing: the power of compound interest; the investment cycle; the roller coaster of investor emotion; the … Continue reading

July 18th, 2017
2016-17 saw strong returns for diversified investors – here are five reasons why returns are likely to be solid in 2017-18

Key points Despite a lengthy list of worries including Brexit, Trump and messy Australian growth, the past financial year saw strong returns for diversified investors as shares recovered  from a rough time in 2015-16. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year include: … Continue reading

July 5th, 2017
From goldilocks to taper tantrum 2.0 – a bit of turbulence hits bonds (and shares). Three reasons not to be too fussed

Key points Central banks beyond the US are edging towards an exit from easy money. This is likely to cause bouts of volatility in shares and a rising trend in bond yields. However, its unlikely to derail the bull market … Continue reading

June 20th, 2017
Global political risks one year on from Brexit – what have we learned?

Key points Geopolitical issues create much interest, but as we saw over the last year starting with Brexit this doesn’t mean they’ll have a big negative impact on financial markets. However, a backlash against economic rationalist policies and inequality and the declining relative … Continue reading

June 14th, 2017
The Australian economy hits another rough patch - implications for investors

Key points Annual Australian growth slowed to 1.7% in the March quarter hit by bad weather & weak consumer spending. A declining drag from falling mining investment, strong public infrastructure spending and a likely resumption of trade contributing to growth should all help … Continue reading

May 31st, 2017
The perils of forecasting and the need for a disciplined investment process

Key points The increasing noise around global economies and investment markets since the global financial crisis highlights the need for investors to have a disciplined approach to investing. Economic and investment forecasts are often seen as central to investing, but while they can be … Continue reading

May 23rd, 2017
The Trump bump and shares – short-term risks, but five reasons for optimism

Key Points The political scandal around President Trump is likely to speed up rather than stop his pro-business reforms. However, after a strong run, shares remain vulnerable to a short-term correction with worries around Trump, North Korea, the Fed, etc, providing potential triggers. … Continue reading

May 17th, 2017
Three reasons why the risks for the Australian dollar are still on the downside

Key points The closure of speculative short positions in the $A, a bounce in commodity prices, delays in Fed rate hikes and expectations the next interest rate move by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up, have stabilised the $A over the last … Continue reading

May 10th, 2017
The 2017-18 Australian Budget - pragmatism and fairness rule

Key Points The 2017-18 Budget has a welcome focus on housing affordability and infrastructure. Subdued wages growth is keeping revenue collection down contributing to a slight deterioration in near term deficit projections (a deficit of $29.4bn for 2017-18) but a … Continue reading

May 9th, 2017
The 2017-18 Australian Budget – pragmatism and fairness rule

Key points The 2017-18 Budget has a welcome focus on housing affordability and infrastructure. Subdued wages growth is keeping revenue collection down contributing to a slight deterioration in near term deficit projections (a deficit of $29.4bn for 2017-18) but a return to surplus … Continue reading

May 3rd, 2017
Are shares offering enough of a risk premium over bonds? What about rising bond yields?

Key points The equity risk premium is the excess return shares provide over a ‘risk free’ asset like government bonds. It is often thought that shares should return more than 5% per annum (pa) over bonds, because this is what their excess return … Continue reading

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Just want to thank you all for the birthday card. It was really appreciated....

Carla de Kousemaeker

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