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Oliver’s Insights

February 21st, 2019
Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Key points After a strong rebound since December share markets are at risk of a short-term pull back. However, despite this we see this year as being a decent year for share market returns. Five key global charts to watch … Continue reading

February 13th, 2019
Five great charts on investing – why they are particularly important now

Key points Successful investing should be simple but increasing rules, regulations, choices and social media are making it anything but. At its core, it is still simple though. These five great charts focus on critical aspects of investing: the power … Continue reading

February 7th, 2019
Why growth in China is unlikely to slow too far and why it needs to save less and spend more

Key points China’s economy is slowing but not collapsing as the services sector holds up. A further slowing is likely in the short term, but policy stimulus is likely to see growth improve in the second half, giving 2019 growth … Continue reading

January 23rd, 2019
Australian housing downturn Q&A – how bad will it get?

Key points Australian home prices are likely to fall another 5-10% this year driven by a further 15% or so fall in Sydney & Melbourne. Tight credit, rising supply and falling price expectations are the main negatives. Uncertainty around the … Continue reading

January 15th, 2019
2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Key points Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was. Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares. Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global … Continue reading

December 20th, 2018
The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)

Key points The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth. However, … Continue reading

December 12th, 2018
The Australian economy in 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates

Key points. Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy will likely see growth constrained to around 2.5-3%. As a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation … Continue reading

December 6th, 2018
Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension

Key points 2018 saw reasonable global economic and profit growth and still low interest rates but it has been a rough year for investors with worries about the Fed, trade wars and global growth causing volatility and poor returns. 2019 … Continue reading

November 22nd, 2018
Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

Key points The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely. Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the … Continue reading

November 15th, 2018
13 common sense tips to help manage your finances

Key points Getting your personal finances right can be a challenge. Here are 13 tips that may be of use: shop around when it comes to financial services; don’t take on too much debt; allow that interest rates can go … Continue reading

November 8th, 2018
Rising US interest rates, trade wars, the US midterm election results, etc – should investors be worried?

Key points It’s still too early to be sure that last month’s pullback in shares is over but we remain of the view that it was not the start of a deep bear market and that the trend in shares … Continue reading

October 26th, 2018
The pullback in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

Key points The current pullback in shares has been triggered by a range of things – but most notably worries about rising US interest rates and the US/China conflict. Shares may still have more downside, but we are of the … Continue reading

October 24th, 2018
Are shares expensive?

Key points Starting point valuations for shares matter a lot in terms of medium-term return potential and vulnerability to share market falls. Basically, the cheaper the better. Developed market shares are not dirt cheap (and haven’t been for several years) … Continue reading

October 18th, 2018
Boom turns to bust – falling Australian home prices. How far and for how long and what’s the impact on the economy?

Key points Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to see top to bottom falls of around 20% as credit conditions tighten, supply rises and a negative feedback loop from falling prices risks developing. Other cities will perform better … Continue reading

September 27th, 2018
Successful investing despite 115 million worries and Truth Decay – how to turn down the noise

Key points A surge in financial information and opinion combined with our inclination to focus on negative news risks making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more reactive, less reflective & more short term. This is potentially harmful to … Continue reading

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