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Oliver’s Insights

January 9th, 2020
Bushfires and the Australian economy

Key points The bushfires are expected to result in around a 0.4% hit to GDP mainly in the March quarter followed by a rebuilding boost. The hit to consumer spending and tourism is likely to linger longer. The drag on … Continue reading

January 8th, 2020
2020 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Key points Despite ongoing bouts of volatility, 2020 is likely to provide solid returns, albeit slower than seen in 2019. Recession remains unlikely (it’s a bigger risk in Australia) & so too is a long deep bear market in shares. … Continue reading

December 5th, 2019
Review of 2019, outlook for 2020 – the beat goes on

Key points 2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global … Continue reading

November 14th, 2019
Why super and growth assets like shares really are long-term investments

Key points While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds & cash, they provide superior long-term returns. It makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. The best approach is to simply recognise … Continue reading

October 24th, 2019
More 21 great investment quotes

Introduction The world of investing can be confusing and scary at times. But fortunately, the basics of investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is insightful … Continue reading

October 15th, 2019
Five great charts on investing for income (or cash flow)

Key points The collapse in interest rates has made it harder for many relying on interest on bank deposits for income. These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing for income (or cash flow): there are alternatives to … Continue reading

September 30th, 2019
Has Australia really had three recessions in the last 28 years?

Key points Some have questioned whether Australia has really gone 28 years without recession because of three per capita recessions in the last 28 years. However, these per capita recessions were not comparable to the recessions of the early 1980s … Continue reading

September 25th, 2019
Investment returns have been good, but they are likely to slow over the next five years

Key points The ongoing slide in investment yields across major asset classes points to a more constrained medium-term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 5.6% pa on our projections. The key for … Continue reading

September 17th, 2019
Will the world slip up on oil again? – after oil prices spike as attacks disrupt Saudi production

Key points Oil prices have risen over the last few days reflecting drone attacks that impact 6% of world oil supply. The choke point for global growth from higher oil prices is normally a doubling in prices. We are a … Continue reading

September 11th, 2019
Australian house prices back from the abyss – seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

Key points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been undersupplied. The combination of rate cuts, … Continue reading

September 5th, 2019
Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia

Key points Australian growth is likely to remain weak over the next year. Expect further monetary & fiscal stimulus. However, while the risks have gone up, recession remains unlikely: tax cuts should help growth in the current half year; the … Continue reading

August 28th, 2019
Negative rates, QE & other measures the RBA may deploy – why? will it work? what would it mean for investors?

Key points The RBA is likely to first exhaust conventional easing by cutting the cash rate to 0.5% by year end before deploying unconventional measures beyond forward guidance which is already being used. Unconventional monetary policy measures could help the … Continue reading

August 20th, 2019
Plunging bond yields & weak share markets amidst talk of recession – what does it mean for investors?

Key points Worries about the US trade wars and global growth are continuing to cause volatility in investment markets. While the risks have increased, we remain of the view that recession is unlikely. Share markets may still fall further on … Continue reading

August 6th, 2019
Escalating US-China trade war – triggering (another) correction in share markets

Key points The trade war between the US and China is escalating, posing a rising threat to global growth. Although we remain of the view that a deal will be reached, the risk has increased. Share markets may need to … Continue reading

August 1st, 2019
The Fed cuts rates

Key points The US Federal Reserve has cut the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% citing uncertainties around the outlook for growth and inflation. The key uncertainties relate to trade and weaker global growth along with ongoing low inflation. We expect … Continue reading

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Thanks so much for the tickets to Love Never Dies. We had a really nice night out.

Andrea & Peter

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