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Oliver’s Insights

November 8th, 2017
The medium term investment return outlook remains constrained

Key points A further fall in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained medium term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.5% on our projections. For investors the key remains … Continue reading

October 24th, 2017
Five great charts on investing for income (or cash flow)

Key points At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex. These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing for income (or cash flow): there are lots of alternatives to bank deposits for … Continue reading

October 18th, 2017
Where are we in the global investment cycle and what’s the risk of a 1987 style crash?

Key points There is still little sign of the sort of excesses that precede major economic downturns and major bear markets suggesting that (although US shares are overdue a decent correction) we are still a fair way from the top … Continue reading

October 11th, 2017
Will Australian house prices crash? Five reasons why it’s more complicated than you think!

Key points Talk of a property crash is likely to ramp up again with signs that the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are cooling. But the Australian property market is a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest. We continue to expect … Continue reading

September 21st, 2017
The US Federal Reserve starts quantitative tightening

Key points The Fed has confirmed it will start reducing its balance sheet by not reinvesting bonds up to set limits as they mature. This amounts to quantitative tightening as it will start to reverse some of the quantitative easing that occurred … Continue reading

September 20th, 2017
Where are we in the search for yield? Is it about to reverse as the Fed starts quantitative tightening?

Key points It’s hard to argue that the search for yield has gone too far given how low bond yields are. A range of assets still provide much better yields than cash and bonds. However, bond yields are likely to gradually trend … Continue reading

September 11th, 2017
Another five great charts on investing

Key points At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex. Here are another five great charts that help illuminate key aspects of investing: the importance of time in the market relative to timing; the … Continue reading

September 6th, 2017
The Australian economy bounces back again – five reasons why some further pick up is likely and implications for investors

Key points Australian growth bounced back in the June quarter helped by consumer spending, investment and trade. There is good reason to expect growth to pick up further going forward: the drag from mining investment is fading, non-mining investment is looking better, public … Continue reading

August 24th, 2017
The Global Financial Crisis 10 years on – lessons learned and can it happen again?

Key points The key lessons for investors from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) are that: high returns come with higher risk; while each boom bust cycle is different, markets are pushed to extremes of valuation and sentiment; be sceptical of … Continue reading

August 15th, 2017
The threat of war with North Korea – implications for investors

Key points Tensions with North Korea have clearly increased causing volatility in share markets. The risk of war has grown but a diplomatic solution  remains most likely although there could still be more volatility before this is finally achieved. Historically, shares have … Continue reading

August 2nd, 2017
The break higher in the Australian dollar is likely to be limited – this is not 2007 all over again!

Key points The $A has been pushed higher lately by a weaker $US, a rebound in commodity prices and technical considerations. The rising $A is a significant risk for the Australian economy and will constrain growth and keep inflation below target for longer. While … Continue reading

July 25th, 2017
Five great charts on investing

Key points At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex. These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing: the power of compound interest; the investment cycle; the roller coaster of investor emotion; the … Continue reading

July 18th, 2017
2016-17 saw strong returns for diversified investors – here are five reasons why returns are likely to be solid in 2017-18

Key points Despite a lengthy list of worries including Brexit, Trump and messy Australian growth, the past financial year saw strong returns for diversified investors as shares recovered  from a rough time in 2015-16. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year include: … Continue reading

July 5th, 2017
From goldilocks to taper tantrum 2.0 – a bit of turbulence hits bonds (and shares). Three reasons not to be too fussed

Key points Central banks beyond the US are edging towards an exit from easy money. This is likely to cause bouts of volatility in shares and a rising trend in bond yields. However, its unlikely to derail the bull market … Continue reading

June 20th, 2017
Global political risks one year on from Brexit – what have we learned?

Key points Geopolitical issues create much interest, but as we saw over the last year starting with Brexit this doesn’t mean they’ll have a big negative impact on financial markets. However, a backlash against economic rationalist policies and inequality and the declining relative … Continue reading

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