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Oliver’s Insights

November 22nd, 2018
Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

Key points The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely. Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the … Continue reading

November 15th, 2018
13 common sense tips to help manage your finances

Key points Getting your personal finances right can be a challenge. Here are 13 tips that may be of use: shop around when it comes to financial services; don’t take on too much debt; allow that interest rates can go … Continue reading

November 8th, 2018
Rising US interest rates, trade wars, the US midterm election results, etc – should investors be worried?

Key points It’s still too early to be sure that last month’s pullback in shares is over but we remain of the view that it was not the start of a deep bear market and that the trend in shares … Continue reading

October 26th, 2018
The pullback in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

Key points The current pullback in shares has been triggered by a range of things – but most notably worries about rising US interest rates and the US/China conflict. Shares may still have more downside, but we are of the … Continue reading

October 24th, 2018
Are shares expensive?

Key points Starting point valuations for shares matter a lot in terms of medium-term return potential and vulnerability to share market falls. Basically, the cheaper the better. Developed market shares are not dirt cheap (and haven’t been for several years) … Continue reading

October 18th, 2018
Boom turns to bust – falling Australian home prices. How far and for how long and what’s the impact on the economy?

Key points Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to see top to bottom falls of around 20% as credit conditions tighten, supply rises and a negative feedback loop from falling prices risks developing. Other cities will perform better … Continue reading

September 27th, 2018
Successful investing despite 115 million worries and Truth Decay – how to turn down the noise

Key points A surge in financial information and opinion combined with our inclination to focus on negative news risks making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more reactive, less reflective & more short term. This is potentially harmful to … Continue reading

September 20th, 2018
Five charts to keep an eye on regarding the global economy

Key points Whether a recession is imminent or not in the US, and more broadly globally, is critically important in terms of whether a major bear market in shares is on the way. Five key global charts to watch in getting a … Continue reading

September 12th, 2018
Seven lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for investors

Key points The key lessons for investors from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) are that: there is always a cycle; while each cycle is different, markets are pushed to extremes of valuation and sentiment; high returns come with higher risk; be sceptical of financial … Continue reading

September 6th, 2018
Five things you need to know about the Australian economy

Key points The Australian economy grew solidly over the last year. While recession remains very unlikely, the combination of a slowing housing cycle, constraints on consumer spending and still subdued business investment will likely see growth slow going forward to around 2.5-3%. As … Continue reading

August 28th, 2018
Investment returns over next five years are likely to slow

Key points The continuing slide in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained mediumterm return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.2% on our projections. The key for investors is to have … Continue reading

August 21st, 2018
Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally

Key points The downtrend in the $A from 2011 likely has more to go. The $A is near fair value, but the increasing negative interest rate gap to the US & a messy outlook for commodities suggest a fall to $US0.70 by year … Continue reading

August 14th, 2018
What happened to all the worries about rising inflation and bond yields? Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey & other things

Key points The fear of rising inflation and bond yields that dominated investor thinking earlier this year has faded thanks to a combination of: ongoing relatively benign inflation in the US; Fed hikes remaining gradual; strong earnings growth helping distract share market investors; trade … Continue reading

August 7th, 2018
Nine keys to successful investing

Key points Investing during times of uncertainty can be nerve wracking, but even in good times it can be problematic. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. The key … Continue reading

July 26th, 2018
Trumponomics and investment markets

Key points So far President Trump has been positive for share markets but this year the focus is increasingly shifting to populist policies with greater risk for investors. The key risks to keep an eye on in this regard relate to trade conflict … Continue reading

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