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Oliver’s Insights

February 23rd, 2021
The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider

Key points Higher bond yields are normal in economic recovery and should not be a major problem for shares if they are matched by rising earnings. But too rapid a rise in bond yields risks driving a deeper correction in … Continue reading

February 17th, 2021
Australian house prices on the upswing again – seven things to bear in mind about the Australian property market

Key points Expect average Australian home prices to rise 5-10% this year and next as ultra-low interest rates and economic recovery feed through. However, the outlook is divergent – with houses expected to outperform units and smaller cities and regional … Continue reading

February 9th, 2021
Nine common mistakes investors make

Key points Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. The easiest … Continue reading

January 28th, 2021
Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year

Key points Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation, but investment markets should provide solid returns this year on the back of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates. Seven key global charts worth keeping an eye … Continue reading

January 20th, 2021
US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields

Key points US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity. Global and Australian recovery will boost bond yields and there is good reason to believe that (after yet another false ending) the now … Continue reading

January 11th, 2021
2021 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Key points 2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; US politics; China tensions; inflation; & … Continue reading

December 17th, 2020
The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook – peak deficit has likely now been seen

Key points Reflecting the faster than expected Australian economic recovery, the Federal Government has upgraded its growth forecasts and downgraded its unemployment expectations. This in turn, along with higher than expected revenue from higher iron ore prices, has seen the … Continue reading

December 9th, 2020
Review of 2020, outlook for 2021 – from pandemic to recovery

Key points 2020 was dominated by the coronavirus pandemic but shares saw okay returns on the back of policy stimulus and vaccine optimism – resulting in constrained but positive returns for balanced growth super funds. For 2021, the combination of … Continue reading

November 26th, 2020
Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

Key points Modern Monetary Theory reminds us that monetary financing of government spending need not be inflationary if there is spare capacity in the economy. But it suffers from a number of problems: it implies there is always some sort … Continue reading

November 18th, 2020
Still The Lucky Country – five reasons why Australian shares are likely to outperform in the year ahead

Key points Australia continues to perform better in “controlling” coronavirus, it has a stronger economic support policy response, its major trading partners in Asia are in better shape, the drag from the mining bust is over and it should benefit from … Continue reading

November 8th, 2020
Joe Biden on track to become US president. Implications for investors and Australia

Key points The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency. While there is a possibility that the Democrats could … Continue reading

November 3rd, 2020
RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work?

Key points The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program. While the economic boost is likely to be small compared to that provided by the recent Budget, the further … Continue reading

October 29th, 2020
Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now?

Key points This economic downturn and recovery differs from those of the past in that: the downturn was driven by a government shutdown; fiscal and monetary support has been faster and bigger; forced asset sales have been headed off; it’s … Continue reading

October 21st, 2020
Expect slower medium-term returns

Key points The continuing decline in investment yields on the back of falling interest rates and bond yields has seen our medium term (5 to 10 year) return projections for a diversified mix of assets fall to around 4.8% pa. … Continue reading

October 14th, 2020
Nine keys to successful investing – and why they are more important than ever in the face of the coronavirus shock

Key points Even in good times successful investing can be stressful. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. The key rules I think are: make the … Continue reading

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Thanks so much for the tickets to Love Never Dies. We had a really nice night out.

Andrea & Peter

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