Key points The trade war between the US and China is escalating, posing a rising threat to global growth. Although we remain of the view that a deal will be reached, the risk has increased. Share markets may need to … Continue reading →

Key points The US Federal Reserve has cut the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% citing uncertainties around the outlook for growth and inflation. The key uncertainties relate to trade and weaker global growth along with ongoing low inflation. We expect … Continue reading →

Key points The long time taken for Australian shares to regain their 2007 high and their underperformance compared to global shares this decade reflects a combination of payback after their strong performance last decade, tighter monetary policy, the strong $A … Continue reading →

Key points Where the US economy goes is critical to the outlook for shares, including for the Australian share market. While the yield curve is flashing warning signs and issues around trade and Iran could cause short-term volatility, the excesses … Continue reading →

Key points 2018-19 saw solid returns for diversified investors, helped by a sharp rise in share markets in the last six months & solid returns from most assets, except cash. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year were … Continue reading →

Key points The ECB and the Fed now clearly look to be heading towards monetary easing, probably from July. We expect two rate cuts this year from the Fed. The shift back towards monetary easing by global central banks against … Continue reading →

Key points Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A … Continue reading →

Key points The Australian dollar likely faces more downside as Australian growth is weaker than US growth and the RBA is likely to cut more than the Fed. However, downside may be limited to around $US0.65 given that the $A … Continue reading →

Key points My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 35 years are that: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; getting markets right … Continue reading →

Key points The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. Cutting the inflation target would be a big mistake. More rate cuts are … Continue reading →

Key points The combination of the removal of the threat to property tax concessions, earlier interest rate cuts, financial help for first home buyers and APRA relaxing its 7% interest rate test points to house prices bottoming earlier and higher … Continue reading →

Key points The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down. Our base case remains that a deal will be reached to resolve the issues, but the risks to global … Continue reading →

Key points Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern … Continue reading →

Key points Surprisingly low inflation in Australia has increased the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates again. We continue to see the cash rate falling to 1% by year end and now see the first cut coming as … Continue reading →

Key points Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. With Labor promising higher taxes, larger government and more … Continue reading →