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Oliver’s Insights

August 6th, 2019
Escalating US-China trade war – triggering (another) correction in share markets

Key points The trade war between the US and China is escalating, posing a rising threat to global growth. Although we remain of the view that a deal will be reached, the risk has increased. Share markets may need to … Continue reading

August 1st, 2019
The Fed cuts rates

Key points The US Federal Reserve has cut the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% citing uncertainties around the outlook for growth and inflation. The key uncertainties relate to trade and weaker global growth along with ongoing low inflation. We expect … Continue reading

July 30th, 2019
Australian shares hit record highs – is the decade long underperformance versus global shares over?

Key points The long time taken for Australian shares to regain their 2007 high and their underperformance compared to global shares this decade reflects a combination of payback after their strong performance last decade, tighter monetary policy, the strong $A … Continue reading

July 23rd, 2019
The longest US economic expansion ever – does this mean recession is around the corner?

Key points Where the US economy goes is critical to the outlook for shares, including for the Australian share market. While the yield curve is flashing warning signs and issues around trade and Iran could cause short-term volatility, the excesses … Continue reading

July 2nd, 2019
2018-19 saw a rough ride for investors but it turned out okay

Key points 2018-19 saw solid returns for diversified investors, helped by a sharp rise in share markets in the last six months & solid returns from most assets, except cash. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year were … Continue reading

June 20th, 2019
Don’t fight the Fed… or the ECB or RBA

Key points The ECB and the Fed now clearly look to be heading towards monetary easing, probably from July. We expect two rate cuts this year from the Fed. The shift back towards monetary easing by global central banks against … Continue reading

June 18th, 2019
Australian growth will be constrained - but here’s nine reasons why recession is unlikely

Key points Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A … Continue reading

June 14th, 2019
The $A still has more downside, but a lot of the weakness is behind us

Key points The Australian dollar likely faces more downside as Australian growth is weaker than US growth and the RBA is likely to cut more than the Fed. However, downside may be limited to around $US0.65 given that the $A … Continue reading

June 6th, 2019
The nine most important things I have learned about investing over the past 35 years

Key points My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 35 years are that: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; getting markets right … Continue reading

June 4th, 2019
RBA cuts rates to a new record low – why? will it work? how low will rates go? and what does it mean for investors?

Key points The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. Cutting the inflation target would be a big mistake. More rate cuts are … Continue reading

May 23rd, 2019
Australian house prices getting closer to the bottom, but don’t expect a return to boom time conditions

Key points The combination of the removal of the threat to property tax concessions, earlier interest rate cuts, financial help for first home buyers and APRA relaxing its 7% interest rate test points to house prices bottoming earlier and higher … Continue reading

May 14th, 2019
The trade war is back – what went wrong, what it means for share markets and Australia

Key points The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down. Our base case remains that a deal will be reached to resolve the issues, but the risks to global … Continue reading

May 6th, 2019
Seasonal patterns in shares – should we “sell in May and go away” and what about renewed trade war fears?

Key points Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern … Continue reading

April 29th, 2019
Inflation undershoots in Australia – why it’s a concern, is the RBA running out of ammo & what it means for investors?

Key points Surprisingly low inflation in Australia has increased the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates again. We continue to see the cash rate falling to 1% by year end and now see the first cut coming as … Continue reading

April 11th, 2019
The 2019 Australian Federal election and investors

Key points Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. With Labor promising higher taxes, larger government and more … Continue reading

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